Monday, February 7, 2011

The Missing Stock Market Factor: Having a Sense of Mix of Holding Periods on a Security

Anyone can make a buy recommendation, but hold and sell recommendations are next to impossible to state. This is because the same recommendation might vary considerably on how long a person had held a stock, or more importantly at what price a person had obtained the stock. But, I have seen no discussion of this over the years. Now that brokers are going to have to issue 1099s showing actuals gains or losses, it seems that there will be a reservoir of information now that, theoretically, could be compiled and merged from various brokerage houses of how much stock is outstanding by price point of purchase.

So, with that as the premise, what can I find. With a Google search of "how i long have stocks been held" I find a lot of trash

Washington's Blog points out program traders on average hold stock for 11 seconds. Clearly that is irrelevant to the consumer investor.

I feel I just don't even know the words to use to conduct a search. The real issue, of course, is whether there are any rich investors who have programs that have been developed to predict what the numbers are. I have to imaging that, for example, one could have two companies, each of whose shares are prices at $10 will have very different trading experiences with a 25% increase in price if one has 80% of its holders having paid well over $10 and have been holding for years, while the other has 80% of its investors having paid $5 or less and become holders in the last five years.

Thoughts?

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